🔢 Data
The number of renters is increasing
Baby boomers
3.5 million retiring every year
It is estimated that by 2025, each retiree will be supported by only 2 working Americans
According to the website RentCafé, by 2025, the number of renter households by someone 60 years and older is projected to increase to 13 million and, by 2035, it is forecasted to increase to 18.6 million, which is double the number in 2017.
In fact, the homeownership rate is projected to decrease for all age groups except for those over age 75.
Students trapped by debt
Best time of year to purchase is winter for discounts, summer is most expensive
Word searches and correlate to neighborhood
- eBay correlates to retail, negative
- craigslist to multifamily/apt
- Stores to retail, negative
- flight, retail
- investment, hotel negatively
- stacks, apt price rises
- wine bar, affect apt rent
Data Maps
Apartments in cities and the coasts are underperforming compared to South East (4/2021)
People who migrate tend to be middle or lower class, not millionaires who are largely built through social ties and their communities
In short: research suggests high earners rarely move to escape state taxes because they are rooted in their communities, and net out-migration is concentrated among middle- and lower-income households. Sources: Center on Budget and Policy Priorities; Young et al., Millionaire Migration and Taxation of the Elite (Stanford Center on Poverty and Inequality).
GreatSchools scores affects housing prices more than actual school performance
“In our most conservative models, we find that housing prices for zip codes that are 1-sd apart in school per- formance diverge by an additional $2,283 after one year and $6,844 after three of rating availability. Further, we link rating availability for one and three years to an additional divergence of 0.21% and 0.66%, respectively, in the percentage of high- income earners for zip codes that are 1-sd apart in school performance”
💡 Hasan, Sharique and Kumar, Anuj, Digitization and Divergence: Online School Ratings and Segregation in America (July 23, 2019). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3265316 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3265316
Build To Rent Trends
Costar
- Finds expenses through CMBS which has to report data
- Hard to get data from small town or buildings under 100 units
Papers
- Ihlanfeldt, Keith, and Cynthia Fan Yang (2023). “Are the Home Values and Property Tax Burdens of Permanent Homeowners Affected by Growth in Housing Rentals and Second Homes: Evidence Based on Big Data from Florida.” Journal of Regional Science. https://doi.org/10.1111/jors.12629
- Holtermans, Rogier, Matthew Kahn, and Nils Kok (2024). “Climate Risk and Commercial Mortgage Delinquency.” Journal of Regional Science (earlier SSRN working paper). https://cris.maastrichtuniversity.nl/en/publications/climate-risk-and-commercial-mortgage-delinquency
- Holtermans, Rogier, Dongxiao Niu, and Siqi Zheng (2024). “Quantifying the Impacts of Climate Shocks in Commercial Real Estate Market.” Journal of Regional Science (earlier SSRN working paper). https://cris.maastrichtuniversity.nl/en/publications/quantifying-the-impacts-of-climate-shocks-in-commercial-real-esta/
State of Real Estate 2022
- Top 5 cities for rent growth (Translates to NOI Growth)
- Phoenix
- West Palm Beach
- Tampa
- Las Vegas
- Tucson
- Top 5 cities by transaction (Competition)
- Dallas Fort Worth
- Atlanta
- Phoenix
- LA/SoCal
- New York Metro